Image: Vincent Zintzen | DOC
View from below of kelp forest floating in the water.
Climate change research
Research to understand how the effects of climate change affect marine life around New Zealand and how to protect our marine ecosystems.

Aotearoa New Zealand can expect warmer oceans, acidification, and shifting currents, we look at which species are most vulnerable —like sponges, corals and macroalgae—and the wider implications of these changes for us. We also build tools to track these changes and guide smarter conservation decisions using the best science. This work contributes to the Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan (CCAAP).

Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessment of Aotearoa New Zealand's marine taxa

Published: 2024

This report outlines a framework to conduct CCVAs for functional and taxonomic groups of marine benthic taxa. Traits and vulnerability thresholds were tailored for marine benthic taxa, with input from taxonomic and ecological experts. Experts for Bryozoans, Corals, Crustaceans, Echinoderms, Macroalgae, Molluscs and Sponges developed functional and taxonomic groups (taxon groups) to be assessed for climate vulnerability.

Trait-based climate change vulnerability assessment of Aotearoa New Zealand's marine taxa (PDF, 5,490K)

Forecasting future habitat suitability of marine taxa to advance climate-smart marine spatial planning in Aotearoa New Zealand

Published : 2025

NIWA partnered with DOC to forecast how climate change may alter the distribution of key marine species across Aotearoa New Zealand. The study mapped present and future ranges for 71 species under different climate scenarios, identifying vulnerable taxa and potential refugia. These insights provide critical guidance for climate-smart marine spatial planning and protection.

Forecasting future habitat suitability of marine taxa to advance climate-smart marine spatial planning in Aotearoa New Zealand Prepared for Department of Conservation (PDF, 9,695K)