Sustainable management means understanding and being responsive to the cultural, environmental, social and economic effects of change. For the Tongariro Alpine Crossing DOC has access to data from:

• activity counters on the track,
• the booking system,
• the Hazardous Weather Alert system,
• track and toilet maintenance records,
• feedback from staff, as well as information shared by other organisations.

These can be used to develop insights to help us respond to pressures and improve management of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing over time.

More insights will be added to this page as it becomes available.

Visitor statistics

The following numbers are estimated using activity counter and booking data. They may be revised as more data is collected and tools are refined:

• We estimate around 100,000 people visit the Tongariro Alpine Crossing annually in the summer walking season (between October and April).
• It isn’t possible to be exact because people walk the full track in both directions and make return trips at both ends. Our monitoring equipment cannot distinguish between activities or individuals.
• Around 6,000 of these visitors access the track as part of longer overnight trips such as Te Araroa Trail, Tongariro Northern Circuit and the Round the Mountain Track. This is based on available data for those experiences.
• Booking data shows that 80% were international visitors and 75% planned to use concessioned transport or guides. This is consistent with patterns from previous years but may not be representative of walkers without a booking. For instance, data from our concessionaires suggest closer to 50% of visitors currently use their services.
• We compare total activity (counts in both directions) with activity in a single direction (northerly, representing most whole-track walkers) to better understand patterns.

Limitations

These estimates have an error margin of +/- 10% because:

• Activity counters are not an exact count of visits or visitors.
• There were no checks on the numbers of people who turned up for a given booking.

Care should be taken when comparing this data to longer-term trends. This is because they are based on data from different measurement instruments in different locations along the track.

Trends

Historically the peak season occurred in 2018/19, when we estimate 155,000 visits to the TAC. The data above show there was recovery from the effects of the pandemic in 2023/2024.

By 2024/2025 there was an apparent shift to a larger percentage of walkers making short return trips from Mangatepopo, possibly due to weather patterns. In the most recent season, the impact of two fires and unusually poor summer weather is evident.

Carrying capacity

In 2024 the Department commissioned reports on capacity that are available on our website: Carrying capacity of the Tongariro Alpine Crossing. This work suggested a range of thresholds that indicate when sustainable limits are being reached and further management interventions may be needed:

• Annual numbers above 155,000 (single direction) – This has not happened to date.
• Daily count above 2,000 (single direction) – this has happened only once, on 30 March 2024. Future improvements to the TAC booking form will include visibility of booking levels so that visitors can choose quieter days.
• Rolling five-day average above 1,500 (single direction) – This has not happened to date. Our work plan includes the ability to have more staff available on public holidays when peaks usually occur.

Weather

Weather is the biggest influence on busy days after New Zealand public holidays, for example, activity on the peak day of 2024/25 was 9.8% lower than on the peak day of 2023/24, despite the average day being 5.6% higher. This is likely because of poor weather during Easter 2025, since the peak day was on Easter weekend the year before.

Hazardous Weather Alerts are issued between October and April each year to alert visitors and DOC’s concessionaires to potentially hazardous conditions. While these are more likely to occur in autumn and spring, these warnings can arise in any month, and the patterns vary from year to year.