Scientific Advisory Panel
Between late 2002 and 2005, a lahar (mudflow) is predicted to flow down the Whangaehu Valley on East Mt Ruapehu when a weak dam of volcanic ash and other volcanic material (tephra) holding the Crater Lake fails. Three courses of action are currently being implemented to minimise threats to public safety from this dam failure (explained in more detail in factsheets 1 - 4).
In August 2001, the Minister of Conservation appointed an independent scientific advisory panel to provide advice on issues relating to the lahar threat. The six-member panel comprises geologists (structural, engineering and volcanic specialists), and lahar specialists.
The panel was asked to advise the Minister on three issues:
- The stability of the outlet dam as the water rises against it.
- Likely dam failure mode and duration.
- Any modifications to the predicted worst-case lahar hazard.
An important aspect of the panel's work is to advise the Minister on any refinements or changes to the worst-case lahar hazard as the Crater Lake refills. Current planning is based on the panel's first report to the Minister in November 2001. This is for a somewhat larger and faster moving worst-case lahar scenario than that used in the Assessment of Environmental Effects (AEE) published in 1999.
A preliminary review carried out by the advisory panel has supported the technical approach adopted by the Department of Conservation to date.
The panel will receive regular updates from the Department on the level of Crater Lake and the state of the dam at Crater Lake. If a significant change in understanding or perceived hazard occurs as a result of this monitoring, the panel will inform the Minister.
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